he Paris Climate Agreement became effective on November 4, 2016. This agreement is the most ambitious plan to curb greenhouse gases responsible for global warming. The agreement was conceived in 2015, supported by 191 countries, construed under United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and to date 84 countries, including China, India and the United States (US) have ratified this agreement. China, India and the US are three major countries responsible for 20.1%, 4.1% and 17. 9% of greenhouse gases respectively; so collectively, they represent 42.1% of the greenhouse gases. Without their serious participation and implementation of the plan, this agreement would be meaningless.

The Paris Climate Agreement has many goals, but most important among them is:
"Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impact of climate change"

If all the countries who have signed this treaty follow their obligations, there will be a significant reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases and a slowdown in the rise of global temperature. The process on how to reduce greenhouse gases is up to each individual country and is dependent on their current status of greenhouse gases emissions, technical and financial resources and willingness to abide by this agreement without causing major economic disruption.

The reduction of greenhouse gases can be only accomplished by replacing some parts of the infrastructure systems that generate greenhouse gases by the systems that do not. Two major infrastructure systems that generate significant greenhouse gases are fossil fuel-based power generation and gasoline-based transportation. Substituting parts of these systems with non-polluting technologies using renewable energy in power generation and zero emission vehicles (ZEV) in transportation may accomplish goals set by the Paris Agreement by 2025. In power generation, there are many options including nuclear technologies, but it is widely believed that most will adopt solar and wind as replacements for coal and gas fired power generation. In transportation, ZEV will be mainly electric/hybrid vehicles. If the agreement is seriously adopted and followed by major countries, there will be a significant paradigm shift, from fossil-fuel based systems to electronic systems. This shift will provide massive opportunities for the power electronics industries, which will be at the center of the transformation.

Though global analysis of the total transformation is not possible in a short article, analyzing the US transformation may provide some insight. According to the US Energy Information & Administration, electricity generation in the US uses 33% coal, 33% natural gas, 20% nuclear, 6% hydropower, 0.6% solar, 4.7% wind, 1.7% other renewables and 1.0% other sources.

To combat climate change or global warming, the US had already developed policies, the Climate Action Plan, even before the Paris Agreement was discussed. It was developed in June 2013, and, if successfully and fully implemented, will meet the requirement of the Paris Climate Agreement. It will reduce greenhouse gases by 26% to 28% of 2005 levels by 2025. It is an ambitious plan, that states: "…In 2012, the President set a goal to issue permits for 10 gigawatts of renewables on public lands by the end of the year. The Department of the Interior achieved this goal ahead of schedule and the President directed it to permit an additional 10 gigawatts by 2020…".

Similarly, the administration has taken keen interest in providing information about the benefits of electric cars. The Department of Energy's eGallon program informs drivers about the comparative costs between gasoline and electric cars in each state to encourage them to adopt ZEV policies. The national average is about $1.14 per gallon of gasoline equivalent, so at current gas prices, it is cheaper to drive an electric car in the long run. California has an ambitious ZEV plan, which is based on a credit formula. If followed by all automakers, California will have about 1.5 million ZEVs by 2025.

China, which with about 20% of the global greenhouse gas emissions, has an even more ambitious plan. Coal accounts for about 73% of its electricity generation and to make any meaningful dent in its carbon footprint China will need very aggressive policies in the deployment of renewable energy. On June, 30, 2015, China submitted its own Climate Action Plan to reduce greenhouse gases. Its target is to reduce carbon intensity (the amount of carbon used per unit of GDP produced) by 60-65% from 2005 levels.

Some scientists, businessmen and engineers are skeptical about many of the claims made by countries about their adopted strategies to meet goals set by the Paris Climate Agreement, but at least governments and industries are moving in the right direction and the year 2025 is not too far away. In the meantime, some interesting contradictory events are taking place, which will have some impact in meeting the Paris Agreement goals.

On October 24, 2016, it was announced that in 2015, carbon dioxide, a major component of global warming, reached 400 PPM, 44% more than pre-industrial levels. Noting such a rapid rise in carbon levels, some scientists argue that unless more drastic measures are taken, a tipping point will be reached soon and the Paris Agreement goals will be difficult to meet.

On October 26, 2016, it was announced that in 2015, the world installed more new renewable energy than coal, as countries attempted to shift away from fossil fuels and to take advantage of massive cost reductions in wind and solar technology. Thus, making some governments optimistic about reaching the Paris Agreement goals.

As mentioned before, whether the world will meet the goals of the Paris agreement by 2025 is an open question, but most countries are moving in the right direction. So, the portion of renewable energy in power generation and the use of electric vehicles in transportation will be increasing every year. That should benefit the power electronics industries, but to date, it seems there is no "rational exuberance" coming from the power electronics industries.

Provided by Mohan Mankikar, President, Micro-Tech Consultants

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