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Solar Market Booms – But A Lack Of Inverters May Cause | ||||||||||
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n the past, inverters have often been an overlooked part of the solar Photo Voltaic (PV) supply chain – probably because they account for only a small proportion of PV system costs. Recently however, inverters have become critically important, because their poor availability delayed the connection of hundreds of solar installations at the end of 2009.A new report from IMS Research reveals that the total solar power new installed capacity grew to 7.4 GW in 2009, more than half of this being in Germany alone. There was an even greater growth in PV module and inverter shipments; inverter shipments grew some 35% over the previous year, despite the very slow start to 2009 and the collapse of the largest market at the end of 2008. Installations surged in the second half of 2009, partly fueled by speculation of cuts to Germany’s feed-in-tariff; and strong demand continued well into Q1’10. The total industry production capacity of inverters, unlike that of PV modules, is not massively higher than annual demand. In addition, whilst there are several hundred module suppliers to fill the gap between supply and demand quickly in a rapidly growing market, the much more consolidated inverter market was not able to adapt quickly enough to the rapid increase in demand seen at the end of 2009. The industry was not able to ramp up the production required. Thus a lack of inverters caused a major bottleneck at the end of 2009, which is continuing to affect the entire PV industry in a big way. This spiraling demand has left PV inverter suppliers also facing major problem of supply. Very long lead times (of up to 6 months) for critical components, such as IGBTs, have left manufacturers limited not only by their own production capacity, but also by the availability of components. Hence the long lead times for inverters are continuing to limit the expansion of the PV market further, with PV system integrators already reporting harm to their business caused by this bottleneck. While the fulfillment of demand is being limited by the current inverter supply, demand will undoubtedly slow in the Q3 when the German market stagnates. However, annual installations in 2010 are still forecast to grow by some 60-70%. This would lead to a PV inverter market of about $5 billion – far from insignificant! Demand in 2009 was extremely volatile and varied significantly by country. Thus supplier market shares and rankings have changed significantly in the last year. SMA retained its position as the world’s largest supplier with an annual market share that has increased each year for several years and reached close to 40% of total global revenues in 2009. However, several new entrants have entered the IMS Research’s top supplier rankings and many, perhaps with better access to components, may be better placed to take advantage of the booming market.
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